Friday, September 7, 2007
21st Century or the 15th? The Canadian Response
***UPDATE*** See this post for more background...In reponse to Russia's claims on the Lemonosov ridge, the Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is heading to the Arctic on a three day tour. During the trip, the prime minister announced that Canada intends to build a new deepwater port and seven icebreaking vessels. Even in our globalized, information age world, natural resources, location, and honor have their place in international affairs.Will Canada build a national security strategy based on Arctic protection? Will the Northwest Passage become key terrain as shipping move to the area? Which U.S. combatant commander is structured to address conflict in the area? How is the U.S. national security apparatus crafting an information-campaign to further our own extensive interests in an area that borders our homeland?
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Does this, should this, spur us to re-read Kaplan's "Coming Anarchy?" A world with already scarce,limited resources is now shaped/pushed to other conflicts by the specter of global warming? As populations grow, so does demand, as globalization grows, so does access...so will the convergence of these factors hasten resource-based conflict? I think the answer is yes.
Additionally, the NW passage will become key strategic terrain, Canada will have to step up maritime law enforcement to make it a viable trade route in terms that protect Canadian interest...although ultimately economics will win out - if it's faster and saves gas, and if the ice opens, ships will come.
NORTHCOM is probably best suited to address security concerns in this region, although given the proximity to Canadian territorial seas, you probably won't see much US Naval presence there until something warrants it/Canada invites us.
Lastly, with respect to the question of crafting an information campaign, I think the answer is "we're not." We don't have a grand strategy, or a communication strategy to promote it. Our efforts in this field are incoherent at best and counter-productive to our interests at best. 1SL
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