Threats Real and Virtual

In this recent interview, USNORTHCOM Commander General Victor Renuart outlines growing threats across new frontiers - specifically mentioning cyberspace and the Arctic.

A massive cyber attachk remains what I consider one of the ultimate Black Swans (to the extent that you can't predict a Black Swan except in hindsight). Not only is the military highly dependent on cyber-systems, but so are vast swaths of civilian and commercial infrastructure. According to GEN Renuart, U.S. government and industry officials "have some work do in the cyber area." That is a vast understatement.

I'll be quick to resort to science fiction, but what first comes to mind is the Battlestar Galactica scenario - take out the network that ties everything together, everything falls apart quickly. It would also cause a vast crisis of public confidence.

Additionally, GEN Renuart gives the Arctic its due as a site of potential future security interests. Remember, itinerant blogger Hawkeye Havoc wrote about the Russian moves in this area over a year ago, glad to see NORTHCOM is finally getting up to speed.

Persepolis

I recently had the chance to see the movie "Persepolis", a wonderful black and white animated film based on the grahpic novel by Marjane Satrapi. It is the story of one Irani family, from the Revolution to the Iraq War, told through the eyes of a young girl (Satrapi). The animation is stellar and the story is beautifully told. It is these Iranians - secular, moderate - that we sometimes forget about, especially with the semi-constant drumbeat towards war we hear today. I think there are more of them than the rantings of Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollahs would have you believe.

It's a shame this movie wasn't considered for Best Animated picture. But hey, no dancing, cooking rat - what would we expect?

Let's Sue!!!

The House of Representatives passed a bill today proposing to subject OPEC to U.S. anti-trust laws. The bill passed by 324-84, enough to override a threatened Presidential veto. While lately, as a center-left leaning Rockefeller Republican, I'm inclined to support anything the White House opposes. This, however, is stupid.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/20/AR2008052001290.html?hpid=moreheadlines

At best, this is a cheap political stunt. At worst, it's pissing in the wind and threatens to provoke a anti-US backlash from OPEC nations. The article quotes a Democratic Lawmaker saying " Americans "are at the mercy" of OPEC for how much they pay for gasoline, which this week hit a record average of $3.79 a gallon." Americans are at the mercy of their own consumption habits, and developing lifestyles that encourage consumption.

Could this be the first volley in the oil crisis of the early 21st century?

I should be happy but...

The Surface Warfare community is quite pleased with itself this week, and to some extent rightly so. From a tactical perspective, it was quite impressive to successfully shoot down the degraded satellite. It is also a strong validation of our BMD capabilities.

I'm not some rabid, anti-BMD guy, but this event bothers me on two levels. First, honesty is the best policy. Who do we think we're fooling with the "save the world from hydrazine" story? This was about sending a message. If we're so sure this is a good idea, a good capability, why not say so?

Secondly, it underscores the vulnerability of our satellite infrastructure. China shot down a satellite in 2007, and such capabilities probably aren't far outside of Russian capabilities either. We should be wary of being too provocative in this field given our dependence on satellites for GPS, communications and other military capabilities.

Bravo Zulu to the crew of USS LAKE ERIE for putting the round on target. I just remain wary that just because we can, it doesn't mean we necessarily should.

The Nuclear Option

(Above, USS BAINBRIDGE, CG-N 25, one of the first nuclear-powered warships. Below, an artist's rendering of CG-X)

http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/1207/121707g1.htm

The FY 2008 Defense Authorization requires the U.S. Navy to build its next generation of Surface Combatants (specifically CG(X)) with a nuclear propulsion plant. While the Navy has some wiggle room to opt for conventional propulsion, I believe there is some wisdom in pursuing this nuclear strategy.

While I am not nuclear trained - didn't have a high-enough GPA to qualify to be a "nuke," I believe that in the "peak oil" scenario a nuclear powered Navy may be the only way to maintain any viable national defense. A conventionally powered fleet will be too vulnerable to oil supply disruption, and it will not be sustainable as there is simply no fuel for the oilers (and the oilers would become even more important targets than the carriers are now).

So...start building those reactors. Not to reduce hydrocarbon emissions, but to protect America when there are no more hydrocarbons to emit. The CG(X) would be a good start...other nuclear powered ships should follow.

Seriously, AFRICOM

I'm all for the establishment of AFRICOM as a new US Combatant Commander. It's probably long overdue. While the command faces some challenges - namely a skeptical Africa, and integrating an interagency community into a largely non-military, non-kinetic fight (where, by the way there is still no Goldwater-Nichols type mandate for interagency participation), I hope for the best out of AFRICOM.

But seriously, what's up with their seal? Is it just me, or does it look like a vagina? Couldn't the people who design these things have come up with something less...pussy?